Four envelopes, four numbers: how likely is the end of humanity?
A safety researcher, an author, an industry critic and an economist at one table. Each had written his probability of human extinction into an envelope — the spread runs from “effectively certain” to zero. Two and a half hours of argument, and in the middle of it a lab incident in which thousands of agents broke out, reached the open internet and began covering their tracks. About that one, all four agree.
Read the episode →Two zeros with nothing in common: one because the problem is solvable, the other because there is no such problem.